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 41 
 on: March 10, 2016, 07:21:19 PM 
Started by catpees - Last post by catpees
Hi,

Understood. It doesn't hurt to ask, though Smiley

Others are welcome to share thoughts on this subject in this thread (i.e. timing strategies that you have had luck with)...

Thanks!

 42 
 on: March 10, 2016, 07:07:29 PM 
Started by catpees - Last post by catpees
Hi SSP,

Thanks for the explanation; it helps. I guess the thing I found difficult to grasp is why the alert level for a given day would be for the following day's close. Knowing now that the historical data records the MTI Signal and Alert Level the same day it was generated makes sense. I don't think it was clear in the original MTI description, especially since the very first Excel file reports the MTI Signal/Alert on the day it applies to rather than the day it was generated.

Thanks for the clarification!

Cheers!


 43 
 on: March 10, 2016, 12:17:15 PM 
Started by garilou - Last post by Super Stock Picker
Hello Louise and DCA,

Here are our inputs regarding why there is no ETFs in our portfolios and what to do when the market timing is down:

* Down MTI signals mean "volatile non-uptrending market":
As a result, it does not just mean that the markets will go straight down neither. We did some research when creating the MTI, and we found that shorting the market (using contra-ETFs would produce the same results) would not produce good results if done blindly.
Following the MTI down signals help removing some volatility from your portfolio results.

* No ETFs in our portfolios:
- at the time of the SSP creation, ETFs were not that widely used and not that much were proposed on the markets. This is totally different nowadays.
- in the Price Momentum portfolios, we do look for volatility as a mean to get great performances. So, we do not look for ETFs that would provide an average performance in their given fields. Instead our filters will pick the best stocks from that sector.

 44 
 on: March 10, 2016, 11:56:08 AM 
Started by catpees - Last post by Super Stock Picker
Hello,

Unfortunately, as we propose our service for free, we can not disclose the details of our strategies.

Regarding the recent technical issues, we do not expect this to repeat in the future. In case we would reach a major breakdown, we would then consider to release more details in order not to penalize our long term followers of course.

Also, if you are interested to see how our MTI works with other markets, please note that we already publish MTI for the CDNX and the Euro Stoxx 50.
Here are the direct link to those historical files:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/marketTiming_history_S&P_CDNX.csv
http://www.superstockpicker.com/marketTiming_history_EURO_STOXX_50.csv

 45 
 on: March 10, 2016, 11:33:14 AM 
Started by catpees - Last post by Super Stock Picker
Hello Catpees,

First, welcome to this forum!

You have noticed a very important point about the MTI signals, this is indeed key to use it properly in order not to skew your backtest results. A one-day shift makes a huge difference as the indicator usually changes after a big move in the markets.

So, here is the key point:
The MTI changes take place at the close of the day.

If I take the value from your excerpt, that would give:
- for 2015-11-30, the MTI is down and the alert value is set to 13595.816. This alert value is the threshold that will be in place the next day, ie 2015-12-01.
- on 2015-12-01, the TSX closed at 13636.06 ie above the alert value. So, the new MTI vaue is UP. At the close of that day, the portfolios are buying all the stocks back.
- a new alert value is set for the next day at 13440.882

I hope that explains how we report our historical values.

 46 
 on: March 08, 2016, 11:46:08 PM 
Started by catpees - Last post by catpees
When using the historical data for back-testing, this off-by-one issue has us moving to cash one day earlier than the actual DOWN signal, and moving to equities one day earlier than the UP signal -- this makes back-testing show very favourable results that don't reflect reality.

I hope this helps.

 47 
 on: March 08, 2016, 11:06:20 PM 
Started by catpees - Last post by catpees
Hello everyone,

I am quite sure that there is an off-by-one problem in the historical MTI data, whereby the MTI Signal and the MTI Alert Level are appearing on the previous day's record. Take a look at what I mean with the example below.

Let's take a look at some historical data where the signal changes a couple of times:
Code:
Date         TSX Close    MTI Signal   MTI Alert Level
2015-11-30   13469.83     down         13595.816
2015-12-01   13636.06     up           13440.882
2015-12-02   13463.82     up           13437.203
2015-12-03   13324.67     down         13532.314

And now, let's look at the emails for those same trading days:

Orders for the 2015-11-30 (received Sun, Nov 29, 2015 at 8:46 PM)
Our Market Timing Indicator is DOWN. The alert level is set to 13617.86

Orders for the 2015-12-01 (received Mon, Nov 30, 2015 at 11:51 PM)
Our Market Timing Indicator is DOWN. The alert level is set to 13595.82

Orders for the 2015-12-02 (received Tue, Dec 1, 2015 at 9:48 PM)
Our Market Timing Indicator is UP. The alert level is set to 13440.88

Orders for the 2015-12-03 (received Wed, Dec 2, 2015 at 9:18 PM)
Our Market Timing Indicator is UP. The alert level is set to 13437.2

Orders for the 2015-12-04 (received Thu, Dec 3, 2015 at 11:06 PM)
Our Market Timing Indicator is DOWN. The alert level is set to 13532.31


Notice how the historical record for 2015-12-01 shows the signal as being UP, but the email showed the signal as being DOWN for that day. Also notice how the historical record for 2015-12-01 shows an alert level of 13440.882, but according to the live signals (i.e. email and web page), that was the alert for 2015-12-02.

So anyone using the historical MTI data should take a closer look to make sure it reflects the emails and/or webpage updates. The quick fix in Excel is to shift all of the MTI Signal/Alert values down by one row.

If I am off my rocker, please chime in...

Cheers!


 48 
 on: March 07, 2016, 12:58:55 AM 
Started by catpees - Last post by catpees
Hello SSP,

Long-time member an subscriber, first-time forum poster. Thanks for all the work you put into providing SSP, it is very much appreciated.

I have been re-reading the threads about MTI, and I noticed that there have been a few occasions that the signals didn't get published in the past. However, I did not find the specific rules you use to generate the MTI signals. In the "Introduction to our Market Timing" topic/thread, you mentioned that the indicator is generated using a few moving averages.  You also mention that the indicator is nothing fancy, and that you like to keep it stupid simple.

Is there any chance that you might share the rules you use to generate the MTI signals? I personally have three reasons why I am hoping that you would be open to sharing this information:
  • Education. I would love to have a deeper understanding of the SSP MTI.
  • Protection. Just in case there is ever a long-term issue with the MTI signal generator -- this would allow SSP users to generate their own signals.
  • Experimentation. I would love to try the rules for back-testing against other other markets just to see what happens.

All the best,
Jason

PS - If anyone else would like to chime in and talk about any personal market timing rules that you have had luck with, this might be a good place to share.

 49 
 on: March 01, 2016, 04:54:03 PM 
Started by garilou - Last post by DCA
So let's look at the risk of volatility.  My SSP portfolio has been as high as +17.5% and a low of -20% (current -16%) during the last twelve months.

My US Options portfolio has been high of +36% and a low of -29%.  Did I ever get hammered during Dec/Jan.  I got hit by an added bonus - a 22% taxable profit for 2015 while I sit on an unrealized loss.  In case Argentina is crying - -25% current so there is 'improvement.'

My dividend portfolio peaked at +11% and dipped to 9%.  This is my equivalent to ETFs and allows me a little sleep at night.

To be honest there are a few ETFs lurking in that portfolio. No surprise that it tends to drift close to the market.

To be doubly honest, the stocks in my dividend portfolio are often featured in ETFs.  Good stable companies that pay regular dividends.  The proverbial widows and orphans stocks.  They also tend to be larger companies and they are the "market" so there is no surprise that they get returns close to market.  My computer can pick these stocks without the need for a management fee and very few ETF or mutual manage to outperform the market by more than their fees.

A few quotes:  "You are not as smart as you think you are when the market is going up, nor as stupid when the market is going down."

"Most Canadians are futile savers."http://www.straightgoods.ca/ViewFeature3.cfm?REF=627&Cookies=yes

Pay particular attention to the last two bullet points of the article.

The ETFs and dividend stocks run the danger of keeping you in the futile area.  I got out of futility by getting into stuff like the first two.  Rollercoaster but every so often you can get off close to the top.  Were there is volatility there is a greater possibility of change if you can be a little smart.

Since SSP looks for volatility and looks on the TSE it tends to concentrate on the more volatile industries and this means oil, rocks and drugs.

Over the years I have done quite well with SSP, however, I find now I am investing an ever decreasing part of my funds with it.  I think it is successful because it tends to pick smaller stocks but that also limits it.  Many of the positions are so hard to get into and out of that they take weeks and the resulting price moves makes larger blocks less profitable.

I sometimes think that the periods are extreme quiet here is because people drift away.  I blame the volatility rather than the 'smallness.'  My back-up theory is Facebook (I have heard that one can waste a lot of time there.)

Which is a shame since there is a dearth of good stock advice in Canada.  Most of my money is now invested outside the country because it seems that the only advisory information one gets here is on what ETF or GIC to buy.

My love of Chartwell comes from having to find a long term care facility for my mother.  In researching what was the best for her I also discovered that it looked like a very good investment.  My return on that investment more than paid for my mom's private room and her other needs so I get to make money and feel good about it.

With the pharma, tobacco, and specialty governmental type products I have no such morality safety cushion.  Charity does seem like a good option.  (In the middle ages robber barons funded monasteries to pray for their souls.  I think my solution is better.)  I have two rules for charity 1) I never admit to actually giving anything to charity, 2) I do not like to fund grown men wearing fezes and riding around on little motor bikes.

If I did give to charity microcredit would be the way to go.  Unless like me you have the luxury of travelling to the locations where the need is and seeing the clients directly there is no easy way to check the 'honesty' of the middle men.  The advantage of these is that there is payback.  So the money acts as its own verification device.  If there is dishonesty it does not come back.  Don't keep on sending it to the same middle man in that case.

Since I have inherent faith in the general goodness of most people (excepting those that own and are executives of pharmaceutical companies) I would anticipate that the funds on hand would grow faster than defaults deplete them.  I would not expect ETF rates of return but I would not be surprised if it exceeded bank GIC returns.  [Perhaps I should add bank executives in with pharma.]

D

 50 
 on: February 28, 2016, 05:48:40 PM 
Started by garilou - Last post by garilou

Hi again DCA
Just wanted to add that after looking closer to the 2 stocks, I find your comment:

In fact, you could say that the customers of the first are dying to leave and the second has customers that are dying to arrive.
very funny but do not understand very well.

I guess I'll have to do more "homework"

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