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 on: July 16, 2014, 12:12:31 AM 
Started by burd - Last post by burd
Is it possible to backtest your Momentum portfolios to hold current positions when the MTI turns down but do not buy any new recommendation's? Basically the portfolio will only be rebalanced on Mondays and not buy until the MTI is up on that Monday. When the MTI is up then all the new rec's can be bought. This may improve performance and reduce drawdown by reducing trading costs, slippage costs, and by not buying in a down trending market.
I have been backtesting myself with excel but it is quite time consuming. Also have been testing with a buy rule sma(5)(bench)>=sma(35)(bench) with good results.



 on: June 14, 2014, 01:03:01 AM 
Started by jeff - Last post by burd
  I did some research on different strategies using Canadian stocks(excluding venture exchange). I used a 14 year backtest of  value/momentum, GARP, small cap value, short term market timing and long term market timing strategies. All the tests show great performance from 2000-2007 and poor performance from 2008-present. Makes sense when the last 7 years have been a bear market. Good news is that things are starting to stabilize and volatility is low. What ever drives the next bull market, I believe the SSP portfolios will roar along to all time highs.


 on: May 17, 2014, 09:57:24 AM 
Started by jeff - Last post by DCA
The market does appear to be going sideways right now.  I use about six different strategies and allocate money according to recent performance.  SSP is losing ground, but I have always noted that it does best in a rising market.  I have another "stealth" picking system that is less momentum weighted than SSP and is doing better.  The best is when the same stock appears in the stealth and the SSP.  They, almost always, do the best.  Last year was my first negative year with SSP and this year is so far more red.

Right now options are king.

 on: May 09, 2014, 10:01:56 PM 
Started by jeff - Last post by burd
I am still following a SSP momentum portfolio. The tsx market has been horrible since 2008 and It shows in all the SSP portfolios. Does anyone think that the SSP model has stopped working since 2008 or is it just the market conditions. Most mechanical stock picking system do stop working as the ever evolving market changes. As SSP nears is 10 year mark with very impressive returns does anybody think the portfolio's will starts to move again like 2004-2008? or is that it? Any feedback would be appreciated.


 on: March 07, 2014, 01:19:53 AM 
Started by Super Stock Picker - Last post by Super Stock Picker
Following its acquisition, Brigus Gold Corp (BRD) has been delisted from Toronto Stock Exchange on March 5st, 2014.

As a result, this stock has been sold on that day from the Momentum portfolio.

You can read the complete Press Release below:
TORONTO, Feb. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ - Primero Mining Corp. ("Primero" or the "Company") (TSX:P; NYSE:PPP) and Brigus Gold Corp ("Brigus") (TSX:BRD; NYSE:BRD) are pleased to announce the positive results of their respective shareholder votes to approve the previously announced plan of arrangement ("Arrangement"), whereby Primero will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Brigus. The acquisition is expected to close on March 5, 2014.  Brigus' principal assets are the wholly owned Black Fox mine and mill, and adjoining properties, Grey Fox and Pike River in the Timmins Gold District of Ontario, Canada.

99.90% of the shares represented at Primero's special shareholders' meeting held earlier today were voted in favour of a special resolution authorizing the issuance of Primero common shares pursuant to the Arrangement.

99.08% of the shares represented at Brigus' special shareholders' meeting held earlier today voted in favour of the Arrangement. Brigus shareholders will receive 0.175 of a Primero common share, cash consideration of $0.000001, and 0.1 of a common share in the capital of a newly incorporated company, Fortune Bay Corp., which will own Brigus' non-Ontario assets, for each Brigus share owned.

About Primero

Primero Mining Corp. is a Canadian-based precious metals producer and owns 100% of the San Dimas gold-silver mine and 100% of the Cerro del Gallo gold-silver-copper development project in Mexico. Primero offers

immediate exposure to un-hedged, low cash cost gold production with a substantial resource base in a politically stable jurisdiction.  The Company has intentions to become an intermediate gold producer by building a portfolio of high quality, low cost precious metals assets in the Americas.

Primero's website is www.primeromining.com.

About Brigus

Brigus is a growing gold producer committed to maximizing shareholder value through a strategy of efficient production, targeted exploration and select acquisitions. Brigus operates the wholly owned Black Fox Mine and Mill in the Timmins Gold District of Ontario, Canada. The Black Fox Complex encompasses the Black Fox Mine and adjoining properties in the Township of Black River‐Matheson, Ontario, Canada. Brigus also owns the Goldfields Project located near Uranium City, Saskatchewan, Canada, which hosts the Box and Athona gold deposits. In the Dominican Republic, Brigus has signed an agreement to sell its remaining interests in three mineral exploration projects. In Mexico, Brigus owns the Ixhuatan Project located in the state of Chiapas.

Additional information about Brigus and its projects is available on the Brigus website at www.brigusgold.com and on SEDAR.

 on: February 21, 2014, 08:48:52 PM 
Started by ge - Last post by DCA
J'ai juste regardé mon portefeuille au cours des six mêmes mois. J'ai eu une mauvaise année et seulement réussi 12%. Plutôt que de se concentrer sur Buffet je navigue à travers le formulaire 13F jeter les uns des fonds indiciels et les commerçants à grande vitesse. Autre possibilité, il ya l'idée d'investissement d'acheter les actions que les politiciens possèdent. (GE RCI ....)


 on: February 14, 2014, 12:57:11 PM 
Started by ge - Last post by ge
J'ai réajusté un peu mieux le tableau pour une meilleure vue.

stock   juil 13     fev 14    %g/p

wfc       41          46          12
wpo     496         658         33
wmt       75          76           1
wbc       76          96          26
usb        35          40          14
psx        58          75          29
pg         78          79           1
meg        9          16           78
mco       60          79          32
ko          41         38           -7
ibm        202       183          -9
dva        58          66          14
dtv        61          72          18
cop        59          65          10
axp        77          88          14
brk/b     116        114          -2
upro       73          93          27
hsu.to    20          25          25
hqu.to    29          41          41   

% moyen = 19%

 on: February 14, 2014, 12:22:10 PM 
Started by ge - Last post by ge
Bonne Saint Valentin à tous Cheesy
Voici donc l’heure du bilan, non pas du bilan cardiaque mais du bilan boursier. Ceci est le tableau des prix d’entrées et actuels (arrondis) de chacun des titres achetés l’été dernier ainsi que le % de gains ou de pertes correspondants.

stock    juil 2013   fev-2014   % g/p
wfc             41    46             12
wpo(ghc)       496   658             33
wmt                 75     76               1
wbc                 76     96             26
usb                  35     40             14
psx                 58     75             29
pg                 78     79              1
meg                   9     16             78
mco                 60     79             32
ko                  41     38             -7
ibm                 202     183             -9
dva                  58     66             14
dtv                  61      72             18
cop                  59      65             10
axp                  77      88             14
brk/b               116     114             -2
upro                  73       93             27
hsu.to          20       25             25
hqu.to          29       41             41

Ayant investi une somme à peu près égale dans chacun d’eux, mon % moyen est de 19%. Depuis d’autres titres Buffett se sont rajoutés pour le prochain bilan.

su.to   36      
lee   4      
usg   29      
xom   89      
gm   36      
lmca   129      
bk   31      
nov   74      
cbi   75   

Je possède maintenant 95% du poids du portefeuille de Buffett


Depuis six mois je fais l’expérience Buffett. Il y a moins de trill que de jouer un 20 ou 30k en day trading mais j’y vais plutôt avec plus de 100k sur le long terme, je ne joue plus, j’investis, progressivement, sans me casser la tête ni les couilles. C’est l’idée même de prédiction à court terme que j’ai mis de côté incluant tous les indicateurs techniques qui viennent avec. Après tout 19% de 100k c’est quand même 19k ce qui n’est pas si mal en six mois. J’ai adopté sa philosophie, J’achète ses titres, je fais confiance au type et je laisse aller le temps.

Mais justement qu’elle est-t-elle sa philosophie?

Que recommande-t-il?

Buffett was asked by one investor if he should buy Berkshire, invest in an index fund, or hire a broker. Buffett delivered with his typical, common-sense rationale: We never recommend buying or selling Berkshire. Among the various propositions offered to you, if you invested in a very low cost index fund -- where you don't put the money in at one time, but average in over 10 years -- you'll do better than 90% of people who start investing at the same time."
"If you like spending 6-8 hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don't, then dollar-cost average into index funds. This accomplishes diversification across assets and time, two very important things.

Que pense-t-il du timing?

The oracle of Omaha warms investors against an incredibly common mistake: You shouldn’t try to time the market. He says it’s a mistake to predict or listen to others who predict the short-term movement of stocks. By the same token, he says you shouldn’t try to flip stocks like high-frequency traders do.
Instead, Buffett says the best thing the average investor can do is buy an index fund over time. That’s it.
‘’You don’t need to look at the prices of the stocks you own from week-to-week, or month-to-month, or even year-to-year,’’ says Buffett. ‘’If you own a cross-section of American businesses, and you don’t get excited (and buy) just at the very top, and if you buy in over time, you are going to do well.’’
As Shell points out, Buffett has become one of the world’s wealthiest people by following extremely simple philosophies. He buys into solid businesses that he can easily understand and holds onto the investments for long periods of time. According to him, doing decently well in stocks is ‘’very, very easy.’’

Que pense-t-il des fluctuations du marché?

Buffett a été inspiré dans son jeune temps par son mentor Benjamin Graham, son livre the intelligent investor a changé sa conception du trading.
Graham avait une allégorie à propos du marché. Il le considérait comme un individu un peu fou (Mr Market) un type bipolaire ayant des sautes d’humeurs, quelquefois super high et d’autres fois super down. Il ne faut jamais écouter ce type mais profiter de ces réactions :
Graham's favourite allegory is that of Mr. Market, an obliging fellow who turns up every day at the shareholder's door offering to buy or sell his shares at a different price. Often, the price quoted by Mr. Market seems plausible, but sometimes it is ridiculous. The investor is free to either agree with his quoted price and trade with him, or ignore him completely. Mr. Market doesn't mind this, and will be back the following day to quote another price.
The point of this anecdote is that the investor should not regard the whims of Mr. Market as a determining factor in the value of the shares the investor owns. He should profit from market folly rather than participate in it. The investor is advised to concentrate on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends, rather than be too concerned with Mr. Market's often irrational behaviour.

Que pense-t-il du cash?

The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. Of course, that's not to say that having a cash buffer for emergencies is a bad thing. However, having piles of cash -- tens upon tens of thousands of dollars in cash -- is a great way to guarantee a terrible return on a very large pile of money.

Connaissez-vous les deux lois de Buffett?


Je continue l’expérience Buffett car j’en suis satisfait. Prochain rendez-vous le 14 août 2014 pour un autre bilan et d’autres réflexions.


 on: February 06, 2014, 12:16:36 AM 
Started by Super Stock Picker - Last post by Super Stock Picker

Following the completion of the merger of Aastra Technologies Limited and Mitel Networks Corporation, the Aastra stock has been replaced in our portfolios by the Mitel stock.

Here is below the complete press release:
Shareholders of Aastra Approve Merger with Mitel

TORONTO, Jan. 9, 2014 /CNW/ - Aastra Technologies Limited (AAH.TO) ("Aastra") is pleased to announce today that its shareholders have approved the Arrangement Resolution set out in Appendix B of Aastra's Management Proxy Circular dated December 11, 2013 relating to the plan of arrangement pursuant to which Mitel Networks Corporation (MNW.TO) (MITL) ("Mitel") will acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Aastra (the "Arrangement").

At the Special Meeting of Shareholders, 9,933,355 common shares of Aastra were represented in person or by proxy (representing approximately 84% of the outstanding common shares of Aastra) and greater than 99% of the votes cast were in favour of approving the Arrangement Resolution.

Under the Arrangement, shareholders of Aastra will receive, for each share of Aastra that they hold: (i) U.S. $6.52 in cash; and, (ii) 3.6 common shares in the capital of Mitel.

Aastra's application to the Ontario Superior Court of Justice (Commercial List) to obtain the final court order approving the Arrangement is scheduled for January 13, 2014. Assuming court approval is obtained and that all other conditions specified in the Arrangement Agreement dated November 10, 2013 are satisfied or waived, the Arrangement is expected to become effective in the first quarter of 2014.

Forward Looking Statements

Some of the statements in this press release are forward-looking statements (or forward-looking information) within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. These include statements using the words target, outlook, may, will, should, could, estimate, continue, expect, intend, plan, predict, potential, project and anticipate, and similar statements which do not describe the present or provide information about the past. Such statements may include, without limitation, statements regarding the completion of the Arrangement and other statements that are not historical facts. There is no guarantee that the expected events or expected results will actually occur. Such statements reflect the current views of management of Aastra and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on many assumptions and factors, including general economic and market conditions, industry conditions, corporate approvals, regulatory approvals, operational factors and other factors. Any changes in such assumptions or factors could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. All forward-looking statements attributable to Aastra, or persons acting on their behalf, are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements set forth in this paragraph. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Except as required by law, we do not have any intention or obligation to update or to publicly announce the results of any revisions to any of the forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, future events or developments, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward-looking statements. You are advised to consult Aastra's Management Proxy Circular dated December 11, 2013, the Arrangement Agreement dated November 10, 2013 made between Aastra and Mitel for risks, uncertainties and additional information relating to the Arrangement, as well as any further public disclosures made by Aastra on related subjects in reports and communications filed on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR).

About Aastra Technologies Limited

Aastra Technologies Limited (AAH.TO) is a global company at the forefront of the Enterprise Communication market. Headquartered in Concord, Ontario, Canada, Aastra develops and delivers innovative and integrated solutions that address the communication needs of businesses small and large around the world. Aastra enables Enterprises to communicate and collaborate more efficiently and effectively by offering customers a full range of open standard IP-based and traditional communications solutions, including terminals, systems, and applications. For additional information on Aastra visit www.aastra.com

 on: December 28, 2013, 02:05:48 PM 
Started by DCA - Last post by Super Stock Picker

Indeed, we do not buy, or we sell if the stock is already in a portfolio, a stock that has been jumping because of an acquisition.

But, in this case, both the buyer and the bought stocks have kept on rising since the announcement, so we have not rejected this choice.

Of course, would the two stocks show up in our filters, we would not buy both.

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