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Author Topic: Virtual $50,000 portfolio  (Read 102269 times)
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« on: April 30, 2007, 01:59:06 PM »

Here I propose to follow a virtual portfolio, as a real life example of the Ultimate Price Momentum v2 portfolio.

This portfolio starts on April, 30th with a capital of $50,000. Commissions are $9.95 per trade.

This portfolio will try to keep as close as possible from the ideal portfolio shown on the web site. The main constraint will be to keep the same weighting of the stocks weeks after weeks. Prices are recorded at the close of the session.

Nest posts will show the orders executed to build this virtual portfolio and will keep track of the recorded performances. Updates will be done weekly, on Mondays.
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2007, 03:37:52 PM »

So, in this first update, let's see how this $50,000 portfolio is created:

- On the inception date April 30th, two stocks were already on hold in the portfolio: VNX (-5.51%) and ABT (+14.39%).
- One stock is to be sold, but we don't care about this one here.
- And three stocks are new buys: TIM, RMX and BLE.

As proposed, we can allocate the amount to invest in those stocks by following our unbalanced weighting rule that takes into account the performance of the stocks since on hold in the portfolio.

Let's calculate the weights of each stock:
- VNX = 1 - 0.0551 = 0.9449
- ABT = 1 + 0.1439 = 1.1439
- TIM = 1
- RMX = 1
- BLE = 1

The total of weights being 5.0888, the amount to allocate to each stock is given by the following rule of three:
- VNX = $50,000 * 0.9449 / 5.0888 = $9,284.11
- ABT = $50,000 * 1.1439 / 5.0888 = $11,239.39
- TIM = $50,000 * 1 / 5.0888 = $9,825.50
- RMX = $50,000 * 1 / 5.0888 = $9,825.50
- BLE = $50,000 * 1 / 5.0888 = $9,825.50

With the $9.95 commission fee and the closing prices on that day being TIM $3.47, RMX $2.28, BLE $18.00, ABT $18.20 and VNX $12.52, it would give the following 5 positions:
- VNX: 740 shares @ $12.52, value $9,264.80, cost $9,274.75, perf -0.11%
- ABT: 617 shares @ $18.20, value $11,229.40, cost $11,239.35, perf -0.09%
- TIM: 2,828 shares @ $3.47, value $9,813.16, cost $9,823.11, perf -0.10%
- RMX:4305 shares @ $2.28, value $9,815.40, cost $9,825.35, perf -0.10%
- BLE: 545 shares @ $18.00, value $9,810.00, cost $9,819.95, perf -0.10%
- Cash: $17.49

Virtual portfolio value is then $49,950.25 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of -0.10% since April 30th, 2007.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2007, 10:18:22 AM by Super Stock Picker » Logged
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2007, 10:24:20 AM »

The value of the reference portfolio (Ultimate Price Momentum v2) on the day of the creation of this thread was 552.45 pts.
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2007, 11:51:05 PM »

Sorry for the delay, here are with data from yesterday, what was the update of this virtual portfolio for this week.

Calculation are a bit complex, and to help you to follow the figures, you will find attached the Excel sheet used to get to those results.

So, the orders for this monday are:

Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy    ML     Mercator Minerals Ltd.
Sell    VNX     Verenex Energy Inc.

One buy order and one sell order will keep the number of open positions to five. Close prices for those two stocks are: VNX $12.96, ML $5.97.

First, we sell our 740 shares of VNX at $12.96. With the $9.95 commission fee, it gives us:
740 * $12.96 - $9.95 = $9,580.45
That closes our VNX position with the following figures:
VNX: final value $9,580.45, cost $9,274.75, final perf +3.30%

The attached Excel sheet gives the details of the calculations of the new weights of the stocks in the portfolio considering the new buy of ML and the 4 other stocks weighted proportionally to their performance since on hold in the portfolio.

We can then see, that for the 4 positions already open a small adjustment is theoretically needed. But as we keep the same number of positions in the portfolio, we will not do it, in order not to execute too small orders. The impact on the balancing of the portfolio will be minimal anyway. Full re-balancing of the portfolio will occur when a position will be added or subtracted to the portfolio.

Then, that means that we use the free cash to open the ML position as follows:
ML: 1,606 shares @ $5.97, value $9,587.82, cost $9,597.77, perf -0.10%
Remaining cash is $0.17.

Now, let's summarize the content of the portfolio. We have the following 5 positions, included the new ML one:
- ML: 1,606 shares @ $5.97, value $9,587.82, cost $9,597.77, perf -0.10%
- ABT: 617 shares @ $21.99, value $13,567.83, cost $11,239.35, perf +20.72%
- TIM: 2,828 shares @ $3.69, value $10,435.32, cost $9,823.11, perf +6.23%
- RMX: 4,305 shares @ $2.42, value $10,418.10, cost $9,825.35, perf +6.03%
- BLE: 545 shares @ $17.35, value $9,455.75, cost $9,819.95, perf -3.71%
- Cash: $0.17

Virtual portfolio value is then $53,464.99 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 6.93% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 591.55 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 7.08%.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (18 KB - downloaded 1176 times.)
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minuit
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2007, 08:12:59 AM »

Hello,

Must be something I don't understand but the order of the May 14th is to buy PAE.

At the end of you last message, your cash was 0.17$ So how many shares of PAE do you buy, and with what cash ?
Thanx
Jo
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2007, 10:18:42 AM »

Hello minuit,

You are right, we are issuing a buy order with no cash available.

That's because our portfolios are always fully invested, with no cash kept aside.

Now, we have to buy a new stock today. To know the exact number of shares, we will wait to know the close price of those stocks and we will calculate the new weights for each stocks.
Then, it will lead to sell part of the 4 stocks already on hold to free cash and allow us to buy the new PAE shares.

By the way, the same mechanism would apply if we would sell a stock and not buy another one. In that case, the cash generated by the sale would be reallocated in the other open positions.
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« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2007, 02:35:26 PM »

So, the orders for today are:

Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy    PAE     Peace Arch Entertainment Group Inc

The attached Excel sheet shows the calculation done to find how much should be sold from each positions to free the cash needed to buy the new PAE position. The rule used to get to those numbers is that each stock should be weighted proportionally to its performance since on hold in the portfolio.

With the close prices of $5.97 for ML, $22.99 for ABT, $3.95 for TIM, $2.35 for RMX and $17.18 for BLE, we do the following sells:
- ML: 181 shares @ $5.97, value $1,070.62
- ABT: 150 shares @ $22.99, value $3,438.55
- TIM: 376 shares @ $3.95, value $1,475.25
- RMX: 573 shares @ $2.35, value $1,336.6
- BLE: 73 shares @ $17.18, value $1,244.19

So, with those sells and the cash that was remaining in the portfolio, it makes $8,565.38 available to buy the PAE shares as follows:
PAE: 3,228 shares @ $2.65, value $8,554.22, cost $8,564.15, perf -0.12%
Remaining cash is then $1.23.

So, that gives us the following portfolio, with 6 open positions:
- PAE: 3,228 shares @ $2.65, value $8,554.22, cost $8,564.15, perf -0.12%
- ML: 1,425 shares @ $5.97, value $8,507.25, cost $8,517.2, perf -0.12%
- ABT: 467 shares @ $22.99, value $10,736.33, cost $8,509.35, perf +26.17%
- TIM: 2,452 shares @ $3.95, value $9,685.4, cost $8,518.39, perf +13.70%
- RMX: 3,732 shares @ $2.35, value $8,770.2, cost $8,518.91, perf +2.95%
- BLE: 472 shares @ $17.18, value $8,108.96, cost $8,505.95, perf -4.67%
- Cash: $1.23

Virtual portfolio value is then $54,363.57 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 8.73% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 602.1 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 8.99%.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (19 KB - downloaded 1072 times.)
« Last Edit: May 15, 2007, 02:45:21 PM by Super Stock Picker » Logged
bryanmcn
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WWW
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2007, 07:51:24 AM »

Will we be getting an update on this portfolio this week?
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2007, 09:29:07 AM »

Yes, sure there will be an update.

But as Monday was a day off, the update of the Ultimate Price Momentum v2 portfolio happened yesterday instead. Add to that the fact that we are quite busy and it makes that you can expect the update of this thread today Wink
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2007, 04:38:50 PM »

So, the orders for today are:

Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell    ML      Mercator Minerals Ltd.
Buy    FNI     First Nickel Inc.

Please also note that on May 15th, TCM has replaced BLE in the portfolio (the company has changed its name).

Thus, the update is quite simple to do as one position is closed and another one open.

With the close price of $5.69 for ML, we close the position as follows:
ML: 1425 shares @ $5.69, value $8,108.25, cost $8,517.20, perf -4.80%

Then, the attached Excel sheet shows the theoretical weighted amounts for each positions. As we are just replacing one position by another, we will not do any rebalancing this week; the adjustments being so small.

So, by adding the result of the ML sale plus the cash that was remaining in the portfolio that makes a total of $8,109.48 to buy the FNI shares as follows:
FNI: 5259 shares @ $1.54, value $8,098.86, cost $8,108.81, perf -0.12%
Remaining cash is $0.67.

We have now the following 6 positions open in the portfolio:
- ABT: 467 shares @ $23.87, value $11,147.29, cost $8,509.35 , perf +31.00%
- TIM: 2452 shares @ $3.39, value $8,312.28, cost $8,518.39, perf -2.42%
- RMX: 3732 shares @ $2.16, value $8,061.12, cost $8,518.91, perf -5.37%
- TCM: 472 shares @ $16.76, value $7,910.72, cost $8,505.95, perf -7.00%
- PAE: 3228 shares @ $2.84, value $9,167.52, cost $8,564.15, perf +7.05%
- FNI: 5259 shares @ $1.54, value $8,098.86, cost $8,108.81, perf -0.12%
- Cash: $0.67

Virtual portfolio value is then $52,698.46 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 5.40% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 584.88 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 5.87%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

* 50000_portfolio.xls (19 KB - downloaded 979 times.)
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2007, 01:26:36 PM »

Quite an easy update today as there are no change in the portfolio this week.
Obviously, no adjustments are to be done due to the small amounts it would imply.

Let's just update the portfolio performances then:
- ABT: 467 shares @ $24.55, value $11,464.85, cost $8,509.35, perf +34.73%
- TIM: 2,452 shares @ $3.52, value $8,631.04, cost $8,518.39, perf +1.32%
- RMX: 3,732 shares @ $2.00, value $7464.00, cost $8,518.91, perf -12.38%
- TCM: 472 shares @ $17.46, value $8,241.12, cost $8,505.95, perf -3.11%
- PAE: 3,228 shares @ $3.00, value $9,684.00, cost $8,564.15, perf +13.08%
- FNI: 5,259 shares @ $1.57, value $8,256.63, cost $8,108.81, perf +1.82%
- Cash: $0.67

Virtual portfolio value is then $53,742.31 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 7.48% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 596.59 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 7.99%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (18.5 KB - downloaded 1054 times.)
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2007, 12:07:30 AM »

Congratulations! 7.48% for one month (since April 30) is a great return, especially for May. We all know that May is a usually a very volatile month. I think the big market TSX is up less than 5% for May. So superstockpicker beat the market again, like always. Keep doing the great job! We are all your followers.  Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2007, 01:17:41 PM »

Hello,

A late update this week. Let's go back to Monday and update this thread with the data from that day:

So, the orders for this last Monday were:

Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell    RMX    Rubicon Minerals Corporation
Sell    PAE    Peace Arch Entertainment Group Inc     
Sell    FNI     First Nickel Inc.
Buy    FNX    Fnx Mining Company

Let's then proceed to the three sales:
- RMX: 3,732 shares @ $1.85, value $6,894.25, cost $8,518.91, perf -19.07%
- PAE: 3,228 shares @ $2.63, value $8,479.69, cost $8,546.15, perf -0.99%
- FNI: 5,259 shares @ $1.51, value $7,931.14, cost $8,108.81 perf -2.19%

The attached Excel document gives the calculations done to find the new proportional allocation we use to find the size of each of the four remaining positions. The new FNX position will be open and the three other ones will be completed with smaller buys:
- FNX: 317 shares @ $37.19, value $11,789.23, cost $11,799.18, perf -0.08%
- ABT: 181 shares @ $23.39, value $4,233.59, cost $4,253.54, perf -0.23%
- TIM: 950 shares @ $3.93, value $3,733.50, cost $3,743.45, perf -0.27%
- TCM: 183 shares @ $18.83, value $3,445.89, cost $3,455.84, perf -0.29%

After those trades, the remaining cash of the portfolio is $63.74.

We have now the following 4 positions open in the portfolio:
- ABT: 648 shares @ $23.39, value $15,156.72, cost $12,752.89, perf +18.85%
- TIM: 3,402 shares @ $3.93, value $13,369.86, cost $12,261.84, perf +9.04%
- TCM: 655 shares @ $18.83, value $12,333.65, cost $11,961.79, perf +3.11%
- FNX: 317 shares @ $37.19, value $11,789.23, cost $11,799.18, perf -0.08%
- Cash: $63.74

Virtual portfolio value is then $52,713.20 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 5.43% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 585.40 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 5.96%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (19.5 KB - downloaded 1090 times.)
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2007, 11:23:33 AM »

Late again this week... Let's go back to Monday and update this thread:

The order for this week was:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy       HF         Hanfeng Evergreen Inc.

In order to buy this new position, and to keep the stock weighted proportionnaly to their performances as usual, we would need to sell parts of the open positions. To find those numbers, the attached Excel sheet has been used and here are the resulting sells:
- ABT: 148 shares @ $22.86, value $3,373.33, cost $2,912.64, perf +15.82%
- TIM: 671 shares @ $3.82, value $2,553.27, cost $2,415.60, perf +5.70%
- TCM: 655 shares @ $17.97, value $2,092.54, cost $2,136.42, perf -2.05%
- FNX: 317 shares @ $34.31, value $1,808.48, cost $1,971.07, perf -8.25%

And, then using the cash from those sells plus the remaining cash in the portfolio, we are able to open the new HF position as follows:
HF: 925 shares @ $10.68, value $9,879.00, cost $9,888.95, perf -0.10%

We have then $2.41 left in cash.

We have now the following 5 positions open in the portfolio:
- ABT: 500 shares @ $22.86, value $11,430.00, cost $9,840.00, perf +16.16%
- TIM: 2731 shares @ $3.82, value $10,432.42, cost $9,831.60, perf +6.11%
- TCM: 538 shares @ $17.97, value $9,667.86, cost $9,823.88, perf -1.59%
- FNX: 264 shares @ $34.31, value $9,057.84, cost $9,818.16, perf -7.74%
- HF: 925 shares @ $10.68, value $9,879.00, cost $9,888.95, perf -0.10%
- Cash: $2.41

Virtual portfolio value is then $50,469.53 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 0.94% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 561.45 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 1.63%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (19 KB - downloaded 1063 times.)
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2007, 03:23:36 PM »

Late, late, late... Let's go back to Monday and update this thread:

The order for this week was:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell      ABT         Absolute Software Corp
Sell      FNX         Fnx Mining Company
Buy       PSE         Pacific Stratus Energy Ltd.

So, we first sell the ABT and FNX positions as follows:
- ABT: 500 shares @ $23.25, value $11,615.05, cost $9,840.00, perf +18.04%
- FNX: 264 shares @ $34.69, value $9,148.21, cost $9,818.16, perf -6.82%

Then, we open the new PSE position and we add some more cash to the previously open ones to follow our allocation rule that weights the stocks proportionally to their performance recorded since on hold in the portfolio. The attached Excel sheet gives the exact calculations done to find the following buy transactions:
- TIM: 721 shares @ $4.15, value $2,992.15, cost $3,002.10, perf -0.33%
- TCM: 142 shares @ $18.47, value $2,622.74, cost $2,632.69, perf -0.387%
- HF: 237 shares @ $11.24, value $2,663.88, cost $2,673.83, perf -0.37%
- PSE: 834 shares @ $14.90, value $12,426.60, cost $12,436.55, perf -0.08%

And we have then $20.50 left in cash.

To summarize, we have now the following 4 positions open in the portfolio:
- TIM: 3452 shares @ $4.15, value $14,325.80, cost $12,833.70, perf +11.63%
- TCM: 680 shares @ $18.47, value $12,559.60, cost $12,456.57, perf +0.83%
- HF: 1162 shares @ $11.24, value $13,060.88, cost $12,491.99, perf +4.55%
- PSE: 834 shares @ $14.90, value $12,426.60, cost $12,436.55, perf -0.08%
- Cash: $20.50

Virtual portfolio value is then $52,393.38 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 4.79% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 583.05 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 5.54%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

* 50000 portfolio.xls (19.5 KB - downloaded 1099 times.)
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