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Author Topic: MTI error?  (Read 13157 times)
garilou
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« on: November 27, 2014, 01:04:31 AM »

Hi SSPs

It's been a long time, but yes I still follow you everyday.

We just received the order email, that set the MTI to DOWN with an alert level of 14668.61.

http://www.superstockpicker.com/market-timing.php

 Our Market Timing Indicator is
DOWN
On Nov-27, the alert level for is set to 14668.61 (If the TSX closes above this value, the timing indicator will generate a new signal).

This is almost 470 points under today's closing of the TSX at 15038.41.

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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2014, 12:07:19 PM »

Hello Garilou,

Nice to read you again  Smiley

Indeed, we had a technical issue yesterday that made us retrieve false data for the TSX and CDNX indexes.

We have just corrected the situation and the right values are now back on the site.

To confirm:
No new signals were generated by the MTI yesterday!

Sorry for this error.

Regards,
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garilou
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2014, 01:20:12 PM »

Quotes providers are sometimes unreliable: even on the best brokers sites, you can see once in a while huge errors.

The problem is when you have to argue with them that they are the only soldier in the parade that walk on the proper foot.  Undecided

Have a nice day (a day that should have been quiet)
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garilou
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« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2015, 06:55:03 AM »

Another glitch?
 "Our Market Timing Indicator is

DOWN

   On Jan-02, the alert level for is set to 14576.25 (If the TSX closes above this value, the timing indicator will generate a new signal). "


With a Closing at 14,632.44, the MTI should be up?

Have a Good 2015 year!
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2015, 12:51:30 PM »

Hello Garilou,

Happy New Year 2015 to you too!

The alert level is given for the next trading day. So, if the market closes above 14576.25 today, then the indicator will turn UP.
It should be easy indeed if the market do not turn down substantially this afternoon.

For Dec-31, the alert level was set at 14635.12 that's why the signal has not been generated yet.

You can download the history of the signals and alert levels directly from the site at this URL:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/marketTiming_history_S&P_TSX.csv
This link is available from the MTI page.
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garilou
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« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2015, 03:39:20 PM »

Thank you,


Still:
From the link that you sent to me:
31-Dec-2014,TSX close: 14632.4, MTI 14576.249 (sent on Dec 30 for Dec 31)
I just checked my spreadsheet again.
I had the same values for the MTI, and for the TSX as I see on that page.
This should mean that the on Dec 31, the TSX closed higher then the MTI signal, and the signal should have turned to UP, for Jan. 02?
Am I wrong again?
« Last Edit: January 02, 2015, 04:13:49 PM by garilou » Logged
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« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2015, 11:14:05 PM »

The figure shown in the file for a given day is the alert level used for the next day.

You also have the signal themselves to help you understand the data.

On a given date, we calculate the alert level for the next day, it is saved in this file and given in the email and on the site. That's the same value for the same day as we discussed in the first post of the thread.

I hope this clarifies
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garilou
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2015, 06:16:35 AM »

Hi again SSP,

I still think that there is an ambiguity, not in the MTI itself, but in the presentation of the file that you referred me too:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/marketTiming_history_S&P_TSX.csv

I understand that this sheet presents the results of the calculation of the MTI after market close.
Although, reading back your very first post, it is not as simple as that:

We publish the results of our timing using the close price of the day the signal is generated and the next day open price. In one case, you buy at the close if a new UP signal is generated TODAY. In the other case, you buy the next day open price when a new UP signal is generated. While the second option makes it much easier, it also brings the performances down. You'll see with the results of this indicator on our portfolios that it would have a huge impact. We propose to solve this by publishing a LEADING indicator BEFORE THE CLOSE of the market. It would be published via a feed and on the website. So, you will be able to react fast if a new signal is generated. Everyday, we would also record the CONFIRMED indicator that should be the same as the LEADING indicator except in a few little number of occurrences (huge move in the last minutes of trading or when the trend is very weak)
.

This is quite confusing: if the MTI uses the close of a day AND the open of the next day (something that after more then 10 years I had forgotten) it means in some way that it is one day late?
This part of the first post (ie: publishing a LEADING indicator BEFORE THE CLOSE of the market.), as far as I know, has never been implemented.

I doubt that you will ever do it.
Please do NOT take this as a critic: one mail per day is enough work.

But your .cvs file should show (for information only - since we all accept that the recipe is secret ) which open number you used: It look like if only the TSX closing price was used.

The email that you send to us says clearly that the level is for the next day, and the signal will change from down to up or reverse, eventually during the day, according to the next day behavior of the TSX.

To illustrate what I mean, I join a Excel book with an alternative, showing on the left side your point of view, and on the right side, what the user sees for the next trading day.

I do not mean that you should change your sheet, because at the end the result is almost the same. But it explains my problem expressed in my previous post.

Please show me where I am mistaken.
Thank you.

Louise

PS: who has ever been able to buy at the "open price"? is it day dreaming?

PS 2: Since the Excel files cannot be appended, it can be found at :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/izakiofbo5irjai/Alternative%20presentation%20of%20marketTiming_history_S%26P_TSX.xlsx?dl=0

It will be eventually modified according to your comments.
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2015, 11:36:35 AM »

Hello Garilou,

The way it works is simpler than that. There is no use of the next day open price in the process:
- each day, an alert level is published. That is the level that will create a new signal if the TSX closes above or below this level on THAT day.
- if the signal is triggered, our portfolios are emptied or filled at the close price of that day.

So, as you can see, there is no use of the next day open price in the process.

Does that make all clear?

PS: You can get the open price by placing a market order or a generous limit order before the market open. Your order will then be executed at the open price for that day.
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garilou
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2015, 06:29:33 PM »

Hi SSP

Thank you for this reply, and sorry that I did not reply earlier

Quote
There is no use of the next day open price in the process

This is what I thought.

I had written in my post:
  We publish the results of our timing using the close price of the day the signal is generated and the next day open price.

This is not something that I got out of nowhere.
Before writing, I had reread everything that had been written about the MTI when if came out, and copy-pasted this.
But now, I can't find it anymore.

BTW, even if not recent, I find that your forum program stays one, if not THE best that I can find on the web.
Even after years, it relatively easy to find back an old post.
Please do not change it ever!

As for your methods of getting the open price, well I would not like to make a market order, unless the stock is extremely liquid, because I could well end up with the highest price of the day.
If I absolutely want a stock, I usually put my limit order very close to the daily Pivot point, and unless there is a big event, I get it.
But someone always managed to get it at a lower price.
As for the closing... this is somewhat easier.
But at the end of the day, it is not so important, if one is going to hold the stock at least one week.

But eventually I will ask you something else about the reallocation of the portfolio after a sell order.

Thanks again,

Louise
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