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Author Topic: Introduction to our Market Timing  (Read 136715 times)
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2008, 10:42:55 AM »

I think its safe to assume that we get back into the same positions when an up signal is given.

What would the chart look like if we bought a reverse ETF like HXD.to when we get a down signal and sold when an up signal is given?

When does this start?
Hello bryanmcn,

When a new UP signal is given you have to get back in whatever positions the portfolio you follow is currently holding.
Let's say you're following UPM v1. When a DOWN signal comes in, you sell everything. When a UP signal comes, then you buy whatever the UPM v1 (the former one, without timing) is holding.

We can do a test with your proposition of buying a bearish ETF when a DOWN signal is flagged. But, as you can see in the TSX timing results, the performances when accounting only the DOWN signals are not so great (except in the last few months, but I expect this to be an exception). We'll see the exact results to be sure.
But our feeling is that when a DOWN signal is there, cash is a safe position, or you might have you own idea of bearish strategies (bearish ETF, short, put options, ...)

Regarding timing, we are currently coding the timing indicator in our system. We also have to write the pages that will explain and present this indicator. This could take a few weeks to complete. At the same time, we are tracking the indicator in the Excel sheet published there. So, if you are interested, we could publish the current value of the indicator on the forum for the mean time.
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bryanmcn
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2008, 03:27:01 PM »

Would like to see current value . Yes.
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garilou
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2008, 10:24:48 PM »

Would like to see it also!
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Super Stock Picker
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2008, 04:25:58 PM »

To check the current value of our indicator, please see the thread Our Indicator Current Value
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DCA
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2008, 11:37:47 AM »

I am wondering about the balancing of the portfolio when (if ever!) a buy signal is generated.

For stocks that were in the portfolio when the last down was generated should we buy the same number of shares or the same dollar value?

For stocks added during the down signal should we weight them based on the price when the buy signal was generated or the price on the day of the up signal?

D

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garilou
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« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2008, 01:17:43 PM »


Hi DCA,
I guess SSP will give its own reply to this.
Somewhere else, SSP said that we should buy them, even if a sell signal was imminent.

I think what I would do would be first to check the technical state of each of the stocks in that portfolio that have not received a sell order between the beginning of the down signal and the new up signal, ie the up tp date portfolio, and not the one that we liquidated when the DOWN signal came.

Some of SSP's recommendations have done not too bad during the "DOWN" period.

As a matter of fact, if I take for example Portfolio UPM v2 in its present state, all the stocks look promising, even if some have generated losses in that portfolio performance.

I would rebuild the portfolio according to the portfolio allocation rules, not buying one if its "technicals" look too bad, in order to keep some cash for the new buy order.

But in any case, you could not buy them at the price they were when the DOWN signal came, because the allocation rules are based on the current prices.

Am I right SSP?

Louise
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« Reply #21 on: December 16, 2008, 12:38:08 PM »

Hello,

When a new UP will finally come, we recommend that you buy the whole portfolio in its current state.

So, you do not care if a stock was here when the last DOWN signal came or not. All you have to do is to rebuild the portfolio as it is.

In our case, we will of course use the same allocation rules as we have always used, ie the allocation will be based on the performances of the stocks since the buy recommendation in the portfolio.

As a result, the UP and DOWN signals are just acting as a ON/OFF switch on the portfolios as you know them until now.
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garilou
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« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2009, 05:46:15 PM »

It seems the the Market Timing Level is not updated very often those days...
 
« Last Edit: 07 January 2009, 12:24:40 by Super Stock Picker » 

What was the big fuss about it? how long does it take to put it on the proper tab of the web site?
After weeks, that tab still refers to an old post.
And an old post that was supposed  to be updated daily!

The only things that are regularly updated are the advertisements.
The "Traded CFD" tab seems to be completed since a while!
Are you preparing a Futures and or Commodities portfolio?

Louise
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« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2009, 11:27:14 AM »

Quote
It seems the the Market Timing Level is not updated very often those days...
We are sorry for that, but the post was updated every day when the signal was about to be issued. These days, you have much more room between the alert level and the market.
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garilou
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« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2009, 05:59:00 PM »

Hi SSP,


These days, you have much more room between the alert level and the market.
Well *you*  know the secret recepy for the alert level, we do not.
It's OK to keep your secret, but there seems to be a new down trend after the pre New Year rebound.
The TSX lost almost 330 pts since you last updated!
How much is "much more room"?

And should we assume that if ever you post the MTL again, this will be time to think that a new DOWN signal will be close?

And the most important part of my question was: how come it is not yet in its proper tab, and not automated like the other information about the portfolios?

Why do you give no answer to the question about "Trade CFD" ?

Louise
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« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2009, 06:44:14 PM »

Hi Louise,

I'm not sure why you complain as the post about the Indicator Current Value as been updated this morning.

The alert was set at 8491.43 for today and the market closed at 8,793.33.

We will do our best to update it daily anyway, the values would be close or not, but there is for sure less urgency when there's 1000 points between both values.

The rest of the questions are out of topic for this thread.
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garilou
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« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2009, 07:08:44 PM »

SSP
1. the update...
When I looked for it, it was before the markets opened this morning.
Updated this morning? yes, at 10:23:03 AM!

And at 10:27:14, you (or someone else with the same nickname as you   Wink ) told me there was no real need to post it anymore because there was so much room!

2. One of my questions is certainly off topic.
But when I ask:
"how come it is not yet in its proper tab, and not automated like the other information about the portfolios?", I do not think that I am off topic.
I think you try to avoid to answer.

But it's OK, it is your site and it is free!
So in principle I should not complain at all.

Sorry about that.

Louise


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Super Stock Picker
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« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2009, 09:09:14 PM »

Hello Louise,

Nobody says there was no need to post anymore. But it is less an urgency when there is a lot of room between the market and the alert level. For sure that if the two values are a few points away from each other, then we will post everyday without a miss.

And regarding the way the information is currently presented, it was our choice to tell you about this indicator before it was ready to be released in a proper form. Another solution would have been to wait until the whole implementation would be finished, whatever time it takes and tell you nothing about it in the mean time. You choose!
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garilou
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« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2009, 11:46:44 PM »


Hello SSP,

I had not realized either that the indicator was not yet finished
Thank you for this explanation.
You did not have to give it to me, I am thankful that you did.
I was already sorry for the impatience I showed, and wanted to apologize.
You know how much I appreciate you, your site and this forum, and I thought (too late) that the way I asked was not too friendly.
So please accept the expression of my regrets,

Louise
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300mmm
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« Reply #29 on: January 29, 2009, 05:25:11 PM »

Your "market timing" is great advice, but what do you do with a day like Jan. 28/29. Do you buy, then sell if it falls below the trigger price(8803)?
I think the big problem everyone has is what is the strategy to get back into the market and go long.
For example, do you slowly add or do you put it in all at once.
What "portfolio" would you start with.
Keep up the good work.
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